David C. Ullrich wrote:Shubert wrote:Sure, on the face of it, it seems possible to reason with a physicist that believes that conceptualizing events that occur with zero probability is unfathomable. The problem is, he explicitly said that even an event of incredibly small probability can't happen.
First, if he said that why didn't you say so?
If events of zero probability can happen, then events of fantastically small probability can happen. Didn't Oh No assert that "Zero probability means that an event cannot happen"?
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics.foundations/msg/ca3eb017d60ca734David C. Ullrich wrote:There's a big difference between that and saying that events of zero probability can't happen.
That is correct. If I titled this thread, "Can Events of Fantastically Small Probability Happen?" I probably wouldn't get a serious mathematical answer and I might even be told that asking such a fantastically stupid question doesn't belong at sci.math.
David C. Ullrich wrote:Second, again you should simply ask him a question. First ask him for an epsilon > 0 such that an event of probability < epsilon can't happen. Second, calculate an N such that 2^(-N) < epsilon. Third, ask him to flip a coin N times and tell you what sequences of heads and tails resulted. Then point out that the probability of that sequence of heads and tails is < epsilon.
David, going that route presupposes that the physicist respects precise and elegantly stated mathematical reasoning. The way I look at it, I have already arrived at an apparently insolvable impasse. Didn't Oh No make it clear that his philosophical perspective supercedes all established mathematical understanding?
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics.foundations/browse_frm/thread/c4de9ae9a364fc79/David C. Ullrich wrote:Third, no he _didn't_ say that! He said "Probabilities this low are generally taken to mean the event could not have happened." That's _true_.
More precisely, those are weasel words in the context of the discussion. Definition: "A weasel word is used to avoid making a straightforward statement. Weasel words are also used to deceive, distract, or manipulate an audience." Weasel wording "conceals the full picture. In this way, one may evade responsibility for what may be inferred."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_wordsPlease note the meaning of the physicist's whole paragraph in response to my question:
Oh No wrote:Shubert wrote:Quantum mechanically, is there a nonzero probability for the Red Sea to split (Exodus 14:21) and for a man to be fully formed out of the inanimate material of the earth in a single day? (Genesis 2:7).
Although, as in qm, when events are governed by probability, it may be technically possible to find a non-zero probability for extremely unlikely events, there must be some doubt about the meaning of the mathematics. Probabilities this low are generally taken to mean the event could not have happened.
I interpret that answer as "Yes, but." The key line is "there must be some doubt about the meaning of the mathematics." Do you really believe that an expert physicist can rationally justify having doubt about the meaning of the mathematics?
Oh No's answer "Yes, but," when you mod out all the weasel words in the whole paragraph, clearly affirms my claim that Oh No "explicitly said that even an event of incredibly small probability can't happen."
David C. Ullrich wrote:Yes it is. Suppose I tell you that I was watching a glass of water the other day, and with no outside energy applied it just happened that half of it froze solid while the other half boiled away. Would you believe me?
David, thank you for bringing up this very familiar illustration in quantum physics. You have proven my point. The accepted and widely acknowledged answer by the experts in quantum physics is that the event that you described can happen, although with fantastically small, non-zero probability.
Now, please consider the meaning of this amusing curiosity. When mainstream physicists interpret quantum physics and assert that miraculous events can happen in a glass of water, the meaning of fantastically small probability is not disputed. When I ask about the quantum mechanical chances for the Red Sea to part (Exodus 14:21) and for a man to be fully formed out of the inanimate material of the earth in a single day (Genesis 2:7), then suddenly those events call into question the meaning of fantastically small probabilities.
Excerpted from
Can Events of Zero Probability Happen?